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August’s freight rate increases reversed in September: International freight insights APAC October 2025

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August’s freight rate increases reversed in September. Access ZG’s indicators from Asia based freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia decreased 20% for September 2025 (following a 20% increase in August 2025). These September 2025-month international ocean freight observations show differences to the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.


The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia increased 1% for September 2025 (after increasing 8% in August). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes decreased 23% for September 2025 time period (after decreasing 7% for August 2025). The Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight spot rates globally decreased 17% in September (after decreasing 15% for August).


There is now more divergence in international freight rate movements between trade lanes depending on specific geopolitical, demand and shipping line capacity policy.


The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) futures is the best read for global future ocean shipping market forecasts (only available for Asia to Europe route). It showed a 9% decrease in 31 October contracts (ec2510) over the past month, longer dated contracts increased about 17% over the past month. December 2025 & February 2026 contracts are sitting 51% higher than October 2025. This suggests that global ocean rates will remain deflated & decrease further in October before rebounding sharply in the following 4-month period.  


Worldwide air freight rates per the TAC Index declined 0.5% for the month of September 2025. Intra-Asia Pacific air freight rates were flat for September 2025 (per World ACD Air Cargo Market Trends report) which was similar to the Index’s worldwide reading which was also flat.


Getting quality early information is important in this volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters under the ‘Insights’ tab and further service offering information can be viewed here: access-zg.com 

 

Reply for further discussion about how Access ZG’s service offerings can assist with increasing control of your overseas logistics operations.

 

See below for September 2025 high value article highlights:


 

Patrick Terminals launches world-first automated rail terminal

 

Patrick Terminals and NSW Ports have unveiled the Patrick Sydney AutoRail, a US$190 million investment that sets a new benchmark for container logistics. The facility is the first fully integrated and automated rail terminal of its kind anywhere in the world. It lifts rail capacity at the Sydney terminal from 250,000 TEU to more than one million TEU annually once fully operational. AutoRail is expected to take up to 900 truck movements off Port Botany roads each day.

 

 

Maersk announces flurry of blanked sailings despite capacity concern

 

Danish carrier Maersk has announced a flurry of blanked sailings in a possible bid to push rate hikes (GRIs), despite forwarder concerns that capacity on certain trades is already squeezed.

 


Ocean Freight Market Update – September 2025

 

Asia to Oceania DHL forecast demand to exceed capacity in September and October before being more balanced from November


Growing demand is met by faster growing capacity and trade volatility: US tariffs are mostly set after months of uncertainty; at highest levels since 1930s, they dampen but do not halt global trade; growing fleet and, for now, slower reaction to capacity mgmt. create rate pressure

 

Freight rates: Long-term rates, service and capacity are stable, as spot rates continue to drop. Early summer increases on Trans-Pacific trades have almost completely reversed; with lack of demand growth, drop to 2023 lows is possible if carriers do not resort to aggressive capacity management

 

 

DHL Air Freight Market Update - August 2025


Global air cargo demand is up 3.5% YTD, with July posting a 6% YoY increase, the strongest growth since April. Global air cargo capacity declined down -3% YoY in August, despite steady growth in passenger bellyhold.


Regional Air Freight News: Asia

·      Mixed manufacturing outlook: July PMI weakened in East Asia (China, Korea, Japan) but improved in India and Southeast Asia, signaling stable yet flat regional demand growth

·      Capacity dynamics: Bellyhold recovery is driving modest capacity increases, but freighter supply remains constrained by aircraft shortages and delivery delays

 


How global trade and supply chain shifts have influenced container prices and current trends in the Australian container market

 

Container shipping is the backbone of global trade. But over the last few years the world has experienced some serious back pain. Until 2020, the ever-increasing efficiency of shipping allowed prices to reach absurdly low levels. But when you play within such fine margins, you open yourself up to the most minor of disruptions. And since 2020, the disruptions have been far from minor. Covid, conflicts and canal obstructions have revealed the fragility of the system that so many Australian businesses rely on. These and other disruptions have led to significant shifts within global trade.

 

The changing dynamics of global trade:


First it was Covid. Borders closed, ports backed up, and the price of container shipping skyrocketed. Then a number of international conflicts began to affect global shipping choke points, particularly in the Red Sea. Then the Ever Given demonstrated how much a single error from a single ship can disrupt global trade. Those were the headline-makers. But over the last few years, other, more subtle, though no less impactful factors have gradually transformed the dynamics of global trade:

 

• Geopolitics: Global shipping routes are being redrawn through sanctions, tariffs as weapons, and the creation of new trading blocs.

• Energy prices: While they have since stabilised, Russia's invasion of Ukraine saw fuel prices skyrocket, and instability in the Strait of Hormuz could present ongoing issues.

• Decarbonisation targets: While the transition to greener, more efficient ships will ultimately place downward pressure on shipping prices, it demands significant upfront investment.

 

What it all means for Australian SMEs:


Ongoing volatility is the new normal of global shipping. In response to instability, the most successful Australian businesses will emphasise resilience over reaction. These businesses understand that container prices are shaped by a mix of global and local trends, and are ultimately beyond their control. But they also recognise that those who prepare for volatility are best placed to navigate it. They'll spread their bets by developing relationships with multiple freight forwarders.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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Phone: 0417 275 262           

           +86 18813902084

WhatsApp: +61 417 275 262

WeChat: Jiefu888Jeff



 
 
 

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