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Freight rates spike once again: International freight insights APAC November 2025

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Freight rates spike once again. Access ZG’s indicators from Asia based freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia increased 75% for October 2025 (following a 20% decrease in September 2025). These October 2025-month international ocean freight observations show differences to the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.

 

Some shipping lines implemented rate surcharges to Australia & New Zealand including ‘rate restoration’ increases of up to $500USD / 20GP and $1000USD / 40HC. This caused increased ocean freight rates on these routes compared to most global routes which have seen far more moderate increases or decreases.


The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia increased 2% for October 2025 (after increasing 1% in September). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes increased 39% for October 2025 time period (after decreasing 23% for September 2025). The Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight spot rates globally increased 3% in October (after decreasing 17% for September).    

 

There is now more divergence in international freight rate movements between trade lanes depending on specific geopolitical, demand and shipping line capacity policy.


The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) futures is the best read for global future ocean shipping market forecasts (only available for Asia to Europe route). It showed a 3% increase in 31 December contracts (ec2512) over the past month, longer dated contracts decreased about 7% over the past month.


Worldwide air freight rates per the TAC Index increased 7% for the month of October 2025. Intra-Asia Pacific air freight rates increased 4% in October 2025 (per World ACD Air Cargo Market Trends report) which was higher than the Index’s worldwide reading.


Getting quality early information is important in this volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters under the ‘Insights’ tab and further service offering information can be viewed here: access-zg.com 

 

Reply for further discussion about how Access ZG’s service offerings can assist with increasing control of your overseas logistics operations.

 

See below for October 2025 high value article highlights:

 

Box trades outperform predictions, showing 'strength and adaptability'


Global container volumes continued to defy predictions of a slowdown in August, posting a new monthly record, according to new data released by Container Trades Statistics today. After three consecutive months in which the 16m teu mark was surpassed on global trades, August produced a record.

 


DHL Ocean Freight Market Update - October 2025

 

DHL updated their capacity vs demand forecast to show Asia to Oceania ocean freight demand exceeding capacity not only for October but also November 2025, suggesting elevated rates for November 2025 too.


Demand

Global demand grew +9% YTD, but volumes have been flat since mid-year; Asia–North America trade fell -9% YoY, while exports from Asia to Europe, Middle East, and Latin America surged, showing trade is shifting rather than shrinking.


Capacity

Fleet capacity increased +7% YoY, supported by strong orderbooks; however, effective growth is limited by port congestion and Suez diversions, meaning actual available space is lower than nominal figures suggest.

 

 

DHL Air Freight Market Update - September 2025

 

Global Air Cargo Demand

With August volume bouncing back at +4% in YoY – stable but slightly lower than the July rebound; strong gains ex-Asia Pacific (AP), Intra-AP, and Europe-AP. Air cargo in Q4 2025 faces margin and reliability pressures from capacity constraints, rising costs, congestion, and potential demand shocks from tariffs, seasonal disruptions, and a global economic slowdown.

 

Global Air Cargo Capacity

Although passenger bellyhold capacity is providing some relief, it is not enough to offset the decline or drive overall growth. Asia to Europe, a mixed yet resilient market, this corridor remains one of the largest and most strategic. Capacity has consistently grown in double digits since March, with Europe standing out as the only region to record positive YOY growth across all months in 2025.

 

Regional Air Freight News: Asia

Sector-specific trends: Tech NPI demand is stable but moderate, while major e-commerce players operate dedicated charters to alleviate pressure on commercial capacity. Overall demand may stay elevated but less intense. Trade lane dynamics and carrier response: Asia–Europe demand is expected to outperform Asia–U.S., where higher tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption weigh on volumes. Carriers are adjusting capacity and canceling flights strategically to maintain rate stability.

 

 

Carriers blank sailings at pandemic pace to prop up rates

 

Containerlines are scrapping sailings at a pace not seen since the height of the pandemic, as tariff turbulence and weak US demand ripple through global supply chains. Carrier operating margins have dropped below breakeven on several key routes, with carriers still prioritising market share over profitability. Fresh data from project44 shows 67 sailings cancelled from China to the US and 71 in the opposite direction this month — a level of capacity withdrawal that eclipses covid-era records. “Carriers are blanking sailings at an intensity we haven’t seen since the early pandemic period,” said Bart De Muynck, head thinker at Better Supply Chains. “The strategy is less about crisis response this time and more about maintaining rate stability in a tariff-distorted market.”

 

Methanol, ammonia, or LNG? The economics behind future fuels in shipping

 

Shipping stands at a decisive moment. With the International Maritime Organization targeting a 20–30% cut in emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2050, owners face one of the most uncertain investment periods in maritime history. According to DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050, 93% of the global fleet still runs on fossil fuels, while most new orders are designed with built-in fuel flexibility to hedge against regulatory and market uncertainty. The transition has clearly begun, but the shift remains slow and uneven. DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) database shows that 84% of vessels on order still rely on conventional fuels, while just 16% are alternative-fuel capable. On this backdrop, we will look at the three candidates that dominate the discussion as the fuels of the future.

 

LNG: the transitional fuel

Liquefied natural gas remains the most established alternative fuel, supported by a mature bunkering network and immediate cuts in sulphur, nitrogen oxides, and particulates.

 

Methanol: liners early frontrunner

Methanol has rapidly emerged as the frontrunner among alternative fuels, driven by the liner sector’s commitment. Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO have all invested heavily in methanol-capable fleets. According to DNV’s AFI database, methanol-fuelled vessels now account for about 5% of all ships on order, with roughly 240 of them being container vessels.

 

Ammonia: the long-term candidate

Ammonia offers perhaps the clearest zero-carbon promise. It produces no CO₂ when burned and can be made from green hydrogen and nitrogen from air. However, realistically it is still at an early stage. Only 0.5% of vessels on order are ammonia-capable, according to DNV’s AFI database, but it could be the first symbolic step toward wider adoption.

 

Efficiency and flexibility

When comparing LNG, methanol, and ammonia, one conclusion stands out: there is no single winning fuel yet. DNV’s forecast points to efficiency as the only large-scale, proven path to decarbonization this decade. Operational and technical measures alone could cut emissions by 4–16% by 2030, an equivalent to 120m tonnes of CO₂, making efficiency the cheapest per ton of carbon reduction available.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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Phone: 0417 275 262           

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WhatsApp: +61 417 275 262

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