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International freight insights APAC February 2026

  • Feb 1
  • 6 min read


Access ZG’s indicators from Asia based freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia decreased 38% for January 2026 (following a 23% increase in December 2026). These January 2026-month international ocean freight observations show differences to the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.

 

The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia decreased 5% for January 2026 (after decreasing 10% in December). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes decreased 20% for January 2026 time period (after increasing 18% for December 2026). The Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight spot rates globally decreased 5% in January (after increasing 23% for December).

 

There is now more divergence in international freight rate movements between trade lanes depending on specific geopolitical, demand and shipping line capacity policy.

 

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) futures is the best read for global future ocean shipping market forecasts (only available for Asia to Europe route). It showed a 5% decrease in February 2026 contracts (ec2602) over the past month, longer dated contracts increased about 8% on average over the past month.

 

Worldwide air freight rates per the TAC Index decreased 13% for the month of January 2026 (after a 5% increase in December 2026).

 

Getting quality early information is important in this volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters under the ‘Insights’ tab and further service offering information can be viewed here: access-zg.com

 

Reply for further discussion about how Access ZG’s service offerings can assist with increasing control of your overseas logistics operations.

 

See below for January 2026 high value article highlights:


Global shipping is facing the volatility trap

 

Container rates surge 26% despite weak demand, exposing fragile equilibrium as geopolitical tensions override market fundamentals. The shipping lanes connecting Europe and Asia arteries that carry 30% of global container traffic just sent a warning signal that 2026 won't bring the stabilization many predicted.

 

The catalyst is not surging demand, but what analysts at Drewry call opportunistic moves by carriers exploiting geopolitical uncertainty. The disconnect is stark: cargo demand remains soft, yet carriers are pushing through dramatic rate increases.


The divergence exposes how geopolitical risk, not container demand, now drives pricing. Major carriers are making decisions that defy traditional market logic as they are building redundancy into systems previously designed to eliminate it, accepting lower utilization rates as insurance against the next crisis.

 

The question facing the industry is no longer whether the old system will return. It's whether the current system can hold together long enough for alternatives to develop or whether this week's opportunistic rate surge marks the beginning of a more fundamental breakdown, forcing the wholesale restructuring that carriers and shippers alike have been trying to avoid.



Why Suez Canal traffic remains 60% down?

 

Security improvements prove insufficient as container shipping demonstrates structural resistance to Red Sea return. One hundred days have passed since the last Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea. The militia formally declared an end to its campaign 43 days later. War-risk insurance premiums have plummeted to their lowest levels since the crisis began. Yet Suez Canal traffic in early January 2026 remains 60% below pre-crisis volumes, with container shipping down a catastrophic 86%.


The disconnect between security normalization and operational reality confirms what maritime analysts have been warning: the Red Sea crisis has triggered structural changes in global shipping networks that cannot be reversed simply by eliminating the threat that created them.

 

For container shipping, the calculation has fundamentally shifted. The question is no longer "Is the Red Sea safe enough?" but rather "Do the economics justify abandoning established Cape route operations?" With insurance premiums still elevated, demand environment weak, and operational networks rebuilt around southern routing, the answer remains largely negative. The Red Sea's transformation from critical chokepoint to optional alternative marks a profound shift in maritime geography.

 

 

DHL Ocean Freight Market Update - January 2026

 

Demand

·      Global demand growth continues: 4% YTD increase driven by Asia’s secondary trades; strong outlook through Chinese New Year and into 2026, with potential Suez reopening expected to further strengthen Asia-Europe flows.

 

Capacity

 

·      2026 fleet growth forecast at 4% (below 10-year avg. of 6%); effective capacity reduced by port congestion and Suez detour; carriers maintain full orderbooks to replace older vessels and secure market share.

 

Rates/News

 

·      Rates expected to hold steady: Futures predict 2026 rates to stay near late-2025 levels, barring geopolitical shocks; carriers push for increases ahead of Chinese New Year.

·      ETS surcharges rising sharply: Charges for Europe shipments to increase another 35–50%, boosting appeal of low-emission shipping alternatives


Asia to Oceania is the only red trade lane per the report for demand exceeding capacity for full forecast period to March 2026


 

 

DHL Air Freight Market Update- December 2025

 

Demand


·      Global air cargo tonnage rose 4% YoY YTD through Nov 2025, with November growth slightly higher than October

·      Strong gains were seen in ex-Asia Pacific–Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, Europe–AP routes and ex-MEA

·      The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects global air cargo volumes to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching around 71.6 million tonnes

 

Capacity


·      Global air cargo capacity rose by approximately 2% YoY in Dec 2025, reversing the previous declining trend

·      While passenger belly-hold capacity provided some relief against the ongoing steep decline in freighter availability, it was insufficient to fully support overall capacity growth

·      IATA’s outlook suggests that cargo load factors (percentage of capacity filled) are expected to remain broadly stable rather than drop sharply, meaning airlines may not be adding capacity faster than demand

 

Regulation/ News


·      Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) goes into force in 2026, imposing tariffs on high‑carbon imports (steel, cement, aluminum, hydrogen, fertilizers) to level the playing field with EU climate standards and combat carbon leakage — significantly affecting exporters to the EU

·      Apollo explores sale of Atlas Air Worldwide, reports surfaced that private equity firm Apollo is considering selling Atlas Air, a major global freighter operator

·      EU Member States decided to introduce a flat customs duty of EUR 3 per shipment from July 2026 on packages valued at less than EUR 150 (so-called "low-value consignments") that are supplied directly to consumers in the EU via electronic commerce from third countries and have so far been exempt from customs duties

 

Asia


·      Air cargo demand continue to grow with Asia leading the growth. As per WACD, Asia grew 8% YOY in last 2 weeks of Nov.

·      Spot rates from Asia to the US/EU continue to rise mid to high single digit in Nov. Overall AP average spot rate is trending upwards but is still 3% below last Nov level.

·      Demand growth forecast at 2.6% in 2026 and outlook remains positive with on going expansion in Q4. Capacity is growing steadily with passenger belly network growth.

 

 

Houthis tease new strikes amid US carrier build‑up in the Gulf

 

As a US carrier strike group makes its way to the Gulf, a familiar foe to commercial shipping has reared its head for the first time in months. A video titled ‘Soon’ published overnight by the Houthis, carried below, suggests the Iranian-backed Yemeni military group is gearing up to target vessels once again. 


 

Desperate carriers slash ocean rates to fill empty slots

 

Ocean-going carriers are slashing rates in a desperate bid to attract cargo before the Chinese New Year holiday next month. On Friday, the Shanghai Container Freight Index showed Shanghai-North Europe down 5% on the previous week, to $1,595 per teu.

 

 

Air cargo volumes continue strong start to the year

 

Chargeable weight nears pre-holiday levels as Middle East South Asia region leads with 15% growth, though comparisons remain complicated by timing shifts. 


Air cargo volumes have continued their strong start to the year, with improvements being registered out of most regions, according to the latest weekly report from data provider WorldACD. The analytics firm said that worldwide air cargo volumes increased by 5% year on year in the second full week of January, running to 18 January, with tonnages recovering after the post-Christmas slowdown from all the main world origin regions.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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Phone: 0417 275 262           

           +86 18813902084

WhatsApp: +61 417 275 262

WeChat: Jiefu888Jeff


 
 
 

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