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Rate volatility; a theme of 2025 seems poised to continue into 2026: International freight insights APAC January 2026

  • Jan 3
  • 6 min read



Rate volatility; a theme of 2025 seems poised to continue into 2026. Access ZG’s indicators from Asia based freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia increased 23% for December 2025 (following a 43% decrease in November 2025). These December 2025-month international ocean freight observations show differences to the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.


2025 was another year of great ocean freight rate volatility. 9 out of 12 months recorded a month on month freight rate movement up or down of over 20% per Access ZG’s indicators from Asia based freight forwarders index.


The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia decreased 10% for December 2025 (after increasing 11% in November). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes increased 18% for December 2025 time period (after decreasing 10% for November 2025). The Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight spot rates globally increased 23% in December (after decreasing 1% for November).


There is now more divergence in international freight rate movements between trade lanes depending on specific geopolitical, demand and shipping line capacity policy.


The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) futures is the best read for global future ocean shipping market forecasts (only available for Asia to Europe route). It showed a 12% increase in February 2026 contracts (ec2602) over the past month, longer dated contracts decreased about 7% over the past month.


Worldwide air freight rates per the TAC Index increased 5% for the month of December 2025 (after a 17% increase in November 2025).


Getting quality early information is important in this volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters under the ‘Insights’ tab and further service offering information can be viewed here: access-zg.com 

 

Reply for further discussion about how Access ZG’s service offerings can assist with increasing control of your overseas logistics operations.

 

See below for December 2025 high value article highlights:

 

Stevedores’ $3b profit pool shows market failure: ACCC

 

Stevedores such as Patrick and DP World will be put under the microscope next year after the competition watchdog said the companies were raking in billions of dollars from hefty fees on containers of furniture, clothes and televisions, raising costs for businesses and consumers. “The market is not operating in the way that we expect that it should,” said ACCC commissioner Anna Brakey after the watchdog questioned why the stevedores were reaping historically high profits when they had ample ability to handle more containers at ports. “You’d normally expect some pretty keen competition between the stevedores where there is capacity,” she said.

 

Australia’s container stevedoring industry is dominated by Patrick and DP World, but also includes Victoria International Container Terminal in Melbourne; Hutchison Ports in Sydney and Brisbane; and Flinders Adelaide Container Terminal in South Australia. The stevedores’ total operating profit has risen by 130 per cent, or $457.8 million, over the past five years, to a record high of $808.6 million in 2024–25, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s annual monitoring report, released on Friday.

 

Stevedores are now charging the highest price per container, in real terms, since the ACCC started monitoring them in the late 1990s due to soaring “terminal access” charges, which are the fees levied on trucking groups to bring containers in and out of ports. In 2009-10, more than 88 per cent of stevedores’ revenue was derived from fees charged to shipping lines, according to the watchdog. But 2024-25, almost half of their revenue came from landside fees, including $642 million in terminal access charges.

 

The ACCC has calculated that since 2017-18, stevedores have collected $3.19 billion in terminal access charges and estimates this is 2.5 times more than stevedores’ aggregate investment of $1.25 billion over the same period. The competition watchdog has stopped short of recommending tougher regulation, but plans to meet with stevedores and governments next year to consider how the alleged “market failure” should be tackled, said Brakey.

 

 

Record orders signal end of globalization era

 

Container carriers are flooding Chinese shipyards with unprecedented orders not because trade is booming, but because they're bracing for a permanently fractured world. Global container ship orders hit 5.08 million TEU in 2025, shattering all previous records according to Linerlytica. Chinese yards captured 72% of contracts. Look closer, and something far more strategic emerges: shipping companies are deliberately building overcapacity as insurance against geopolitical disintegration. This isn't about the Red Sea, as carriers learned from COVID and Ukraine that optimized global networks are structurally vulnerable. They're now building redundancy into the system accepting higher costs for strategic flexibility.

 

 

Global trade to hit record $35trn this year: UNCTAD

 

Global trade is on track to hit an unprecedented $35trn this year, with East Asia, Africa and South-South corridors driving the gains even as geopolitical fragmentation reshapes supply chains, according to UNCTAD’s year-end global trade update.nTrade is expected to grow 7% in 2025, adding $2.2trn in new value. Crucially, the late-year expansion is being powered by higher volumes, not higher prices, marking a shift from the inflation-driven trade growth seen earlier in the year.


 

China’s Taiwan Strait deployments signal new era of militarized commerce

 

Beijing's largest naval show of force since 1996 reveals how commercial shipping routes are becoming permanent theaters of strategic competition. When China's newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, glided northward through the Taiwan Strait on December 16, it marked more than a routine naval transit. The passage epitomized a fundamental shift in global maritime security: the world's most critical shipping lanes are now permanent military deployment zones where commercial efficiency increasingly bows to geopolitical calculation.

 

Yet commercial shipping continues unabated. No advisories warn carriers to avoid the strait. Insurance premiums remain stable, unlike the Red Sea where Houthi attacks triggered dramatic rate increases. Vessel traffic flows normally through the channel. This paradox reveals the strategic sophistication of Beijing's approach. Rather than disrupting trade, China is normalizing military presence reshaping security baselines without crossing conflict thresholds that would trigger international intervention or economic backlash.

 

 

Ocean Freight Market Update - December 2025


Global Ocean Freight Market Overview


Demand

·      5% YTD demand growth led by Asia-Europe and secondary trades; US-China slowed by tariffs, but global demand strong into Chinese New Year.

 

Capacity

·      7% YoY fleet growth to meet demand, but effective supply reduced by port congestion and Suez detours; orderbooks full as carriers seek market share.

 

Rates/News

·      With demand spike ahead of Chinese New Year, carriers push for rate increases; success only on strong lanes like Asia-Europe. SCFI up 26% from Q3 lows but still below last year.

·      EU ETS will cover 100% of emissions in 2026; charges expected to rise by 35–50%, increasing pressure for low-carbon shipping solutions.

 

For Asia to Oceania route DHL forecasts demand exceeding supply for their entire forecast period to February 2026.

 

 

DHL Air Freight Market Update - November 2025

 

Demand

·      Global air cargo tonnage rose +4% YoY YTD through Oct 2025, with November growth flat versus September.

·      Strong gains were seen in ex-Asia Pacific–Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, and Europe–AP routes.

·      Outlook for Q1 2026: expect demand to continue growing over Q1, but at a moderate pace rather than a sharp rebound — likely in the low single‑digit percentage range year on year, depending on trade‑lane and region.

 

Capacity

·      Global air cargo capacity declined ~2% YoY in Nov 2025 after steady reductions since May, driven by sharp double-digit drops in freighter availability.

·      Passenger belly-hold capacity provides some relief, but not enough to offset the decline or restore overall capacity growth.

·      Outlook for Q1 2026: Supply-side capacity, including dedicated freighters and belly-hold, is expected to remain stable, likely maintaining balance with demand growth. Spot rates and average yields could face pressure if demand does not accelerate.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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