International freight insights APAC May 2026
Access ZG’s indicators from Asia based freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia increased 104% for April 2026 (following a 15% increase in March 2026). These April 2026-month international ocean freight observations show differences to the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.
The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia increased 16% for April 2026 (after decreasing 1% in March). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes increased 5% for April 2026 time period (after increasing 37% for March 2026). This indicates some further spot rate rises globally. Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index showed container rates growing strongly with an increase of 36% for April 2026. The Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight spot rates globally decreased 3% in April 2026 (after increasing 20% for March).
There is now more divergence in international freight rate movements between trade lanes depending on specific geopolitical, insurance premium, demand and shipping line capacity policy.
The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) futures is the best read for global future ocean shipping market forecasts (only available for Asia to Europe route). It showed an 11% price decrease in May 2026 contracts (ec2605) over the past month, longer dated contracts decreased about 2% on average over the past month.
Worldwide air freight rates per the TAC Index increased 16% for the month of April 2026 (after a 19% increase in March 2026).
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See below for April 2026 high value article highlights:
Rates remain elevated and return to normal not expected soon
Airfreight rates have risen again as jet fuel remains elevated and TAC Index reports a return to normal is not expected anytime soon. The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00), calculated by TAC, increased 5.1% over the week to 6 April, leaving it up 15.8% year on year. “With the price of jet fuel remaining elevated, and supply now scarce in some locations, sources do not anticipate a return to normal conditions any time soon – even if there is a swift resolution to the conflict in the Gulf,” said TAC Index. Rates on the busiest lanes out of China, to Europe and the US, were up almost 30% year on year in both directions.
Carrier surcharges drive up intra-Asia rates 'to maintain profits'
Intra-Asia rates have been kept elevated by high bunker prices, even though cargo volumes have been flat since the Chinese New Year in February.
Gunfire and gridlock choke Hormuz
The shadow of the 1970s oil embargo has returned to haunt the global economy, but with a modern, more violent twist. In the latest escalation, a Liberia-flagged containership has been left with heavy damage to the bridge after being subjected to gunfire from an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) boat. The attack occurred 15 nautical miles northeast of Oman. Despite the vessel reportedly having permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz and making no prior VHF contact with the attackers, the IRGC opened fire at close range, likely in revenge for US forces firing on and taking control of an Iranian boxship earlier in the week. The geopolitical gridlock shows no signs of easing. President Donald Trump confirmed yesterday he will extend the current ceasefire with Iran while maintaining the US maritime blockade, citing a request from Pakistan to allow for unified negotiations. However, the ceasefire on land is not reflected at sea.
The impact of dual-chokepoints militarization
The Bab el-Mandeb disruption imposed a structural, not episodic, demand collapse while the Hormuz crisis was qualitatively different velocity over duration and war-risk premiums surged, making commercial transit commercially impossible before Iranian military enforcement was even fully tested. When Houthi forces began targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea in late 2023, the shipping industry responded with one of the most decisive routing shifts in modern maritime history. Within weeks, the major carriers abandoned the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Container transits through the strait, which had averaged 130 vessels per week before the crisis, collapsed to roughly 40 by 2024.
The Cape of Good Hope route, now the sole functional alternative, has absorbed traffic growth of 191% since 2024 and is approaching operational saturation. Iran has demonstrated, in South African naval exercises with Russia and China, that it understands the strategic value of the Cape corridor and its vulnerabilities. Full normalization in either strait requires four conditions that do not exist and are not forecast: verified elimination of the Houthi threat-generation capability; Iranian strategic de-escalation; sustained carrier confidence rebuilding; and an insurance market recalibration that takes months even after the shooting stops. None of those clocks has started.
Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.
Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,
Jeffrey Levy CA
Founder
ACCESS ZG
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