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A coinciding peak season with US tariff resolutions?: International freight insights APAC May 2025

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A coinciding peak season with US tariff resolutions later this year may be the next rapid freight rate increase event. Access ZG’s indicators from Asia freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia decreased 17% for the April 2025 month (this follows a rapid decrease by up 100% in the month prior off very depressed rate levels). These decreases occurred in the first half of April and have been roughly flat in the second half of the month. These April 2025-month international ocean freight observations show greater decreases than the Index results stated below. This is due to extreme rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.


A big theme with multiple articles in logistics journals recently is about the changed dynamics between shippers, freight forwarders and shipping lines. These changing trends show many shipping lines becoming more like integrators (extending from just ocean freight services to also ports, warehouses etc) and thereby dictating more conditions to freight forwarders in particular but also to shippers. These dynamics are explained in the “Forwarders 'allowing the fox into the chicken run' by supporting 'hungry' carriers” article below.


The China Containerized Freight Index (which is the best index for spot ocean freight between Asia and Australia) showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia increased 12% for April 2025 (but still down 30% YTD). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which generally leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes decreased 1% over the same April 2025 time period. This index decreased just 0.5% in the final week of the month – indicating a flatlining in global rates in the coming week or two.


The inversion of the China to South East Asia and China to Australia / New Zealand per The China Containerized Freight Index suggests that Australia rates are more deflated (by over 6%) than neighboring routes and there is more upside in rates China to Australia in the short/ medium term versus China to South East Asia. This is suggested via Australia index levels being mostly above South East Asia rates over recent history.

 

Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight rates globally decreased 4% for April 2025. Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index was an outlier in ocean freight rates and increased 17% for April 2025- again a warning indicator that strong rate increases to Australia are possible in the near term.


Also, shipping lines have showed they will drastically raise freight rates at the prospect of any potential global disruptive supply chain event. This disruptive event may be an easing of US tariffs coinciding with the ocean freight peak-season. A dislocation of container equipment and sudden change in demand and ship routing could be a reason for a rate surge. Also, at current rates shipping lines are making losses on China / Asia to Australia / New Zealand routes and therefore will be looking at global events to increase rates and may increase blank sailings in the short term.

 

Worldwide air freight rates (full-market mix of spot rates and contract rates) were approximately flat for the month of April 2025 (per World ACD Air Cargo Market Trends report). Intra-Asia Pacific air freight rates decreased 2%.


Getting quality early information is as important as ever in this extremely volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters can be viewed here: access-zg.com/blog. See below for April 2025 high value article highlights:


US tariffs and trade war will result in 'Covid-like' shortages and layoffs

 

As the suspense over tariffs and the trade war between Washington and Beijing drags on, keeping firms in limbo, the prospect of major supply chain shocks is growing. Indeed, Torsten Slok, chief economist of asset management firm Apollo Global Management, predicted “Covid-like” shortages, as well as layoffs in the retail, trucking and logistics sectors. And another round of Covid-era deja vu could follow the shortages once tariffs get settled and shipping resumes. Importers scrambling to replenish depleted inventories would likely trigger a surge in shipments that would overwhelm supply chains. Mr Slok pointed out that the shipping industry had reduced capacity, so such a rebound would result in delays and drive up costs.

 

OEC’s Mr Firrincieli warned of serious disruption. He said even if the tariffs were settled this week, there was a lot of backlog [cargo] to ship, and ‘back-to-school’ merchandise should be shipped shortly. If it took until June, or even July, to come to a resolution, the stock replenishment would play out during the peak shipping season, resulting in a space crunch and equipment shortages, causing massive backlogs.

 

“It could be Covid all over again,” he said.

 

 

'Tariff madness' will prompt renegotiation of ocean shipping contracts

 

Today’s “absolutely nuts” container shipping market will spur contract renegotiations, as rates and minimum quantity commitments (MQCs) are questioned, according to Patrik Berglund, CEO of Xeneta.  “Disruption has been constant for the past six years. It’s one thing after another,” said Mr Burgland.  And as a recent Loadstar Premium report highlighted, “the colossal waves of uncertainty couldn’t come at a more unfortunate time”. “April is traditionally annual contract signing season, when most shippers and their carriers conclude pricing and volume commitments for the next 12 months,” explained Premium. 

 

Fabio Brocca, chief product officer at Xeneta, advised that on many trades, shippers would be able to make savings by sticking to the spot market.  But CEO of Sea-Intelligence Alan Murphy told The Loadstar Premium: “The spot market is bound to be a wild ride in 2025, but at the moment, just based on the tariff madness, I don’t know the direction it’ll move.”  Xeneta predicted that there would be “lots of renegotiating of contracts made over the past two quarters”, while Mr Brocca added that shippers would need to reassess if they were able provide their MQCs.  

 


Volumes set to 'fall off a cliff' as US firms hit the brakes on sourcing and bookings

 

Cargo owners should brace for a “cliff event” similar to the turmoil in the early days of the Covid pandemic, possibly followed by a surge in traffic, clogging up supply chains, later in the year. These trends indicate that many companies have stepped on the brakes in their sourcing and adopted a wait-and-see attitude, until they have better visibility about the emerging tariff landscape, said Mr Brashier.

 

The paralysis won’t be limited to imports from China, he added – “anything outbound to China is pretty much paused or cancelled”. How long this limbo will last is difficult to predict, as it hinges on a number of factors – from actions of the US administration, to consumer demand, he reckons. He is willing to make one prediction, though: “The longer this trough lasts, the higher will be the likelihood of a sharp surge in import orders that could hit supply chains in a similar manner to what was experienced in 2021-22”. The index warns: “Similar to the post-Covid period, shippers should be prepared for another heavy import wave later in the year, once inventory pulled forward is depleted and new sourcing options get solidified pending new trade policies.” This scenario threatens a potential repeat of the disruptions that cargo owners and logistics providers were struggling with three years ago, from congested container terminals and railheads to shortages of empty boxes and chassis.

 

 

Outlook for container shipping 'more uncertain now than at the onset of Covid'


Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry, said: “Any predictions we make for the container shipping market – or any market for that matter – have an extremely short shelf life.”  “I’d say we’re in coin-flip territory as we await what happens during the 90-day pause on tariffs, which will end in early July.” 

 

 

Cancelled voyages take the sting out of spot rate declines this week

 

Container freight spot rates maintained their downward trajectory this week, as tariff uncertainty continued to plague the transpacific market and demand elsewhere failed to match supply. However, the rising number of blanked sailings appears to have at least limited the weekly losses to single-digit declines. Liner analyst John McCown noted in his monthly analysis this week that “the very early signs point to the industry having already blanked 81 sailings for April in the transpacific tradelane, well above the 51 sailings blanked during the monthly height of the pandemic”.

 

 

Majors sign Evergreen contracts at higher rates, but smaller clients more wary

 

Evergreen’s corporate clients have committed to year-long transpacific shipping contracts at higher rates, despite uncertainty caused by the US-China tariff war, said general manager Wu Kuang Hui on Friday. But he added that small and mid-sized enterprises were more risk-averse and more hesitant toward contracts. Mr Wu said: “We expect the signing of all contracts to be completed by this week. Waiting beyond April would mean entering new contracts in May with greater exposure to risk over the next year.”

 

 

Wan Hai Chief: Transpacific Volumes Weak, Not Wiped Out

 

Wan Hai Lines' General Manager Tommy Hsieh said: "Although tariffs are suppressing exports, there will still be volumes. It's just delayed. Whether there is a reprieve from the 90-day (from 9 April) break in the implementation of tariffs on all imports into the US, except for Chinese goods, Hsieh stated that it depends on how end-customers place orders. He said: "Urgent orders may occur. If the tariff exemptions last for a while, the countries least affected by exports to the US West Coast are likely to be Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. "There's currently no issue with container shortages. If container availability becomes scarce in the future, it could lead to a situation similar to the Red Sea crisis or the post- pandemic period. The goal is to have a smooth and efficient distribution across all shipping routes."

 

 

DHL Ocean Freight Market Update April 2025


Ocean Freight Market Outlook April 2025- Freight Rates:

• Rates expected to increase in May and June mainly due to early peak-season to Europe expected due to ongoing routing around South Africa.

• SCFI has fallen > 55% since Dec. Now stabilizing on lower level on most trades.

• Rate decline mainly from lack of proactive capacity management by carriers as new alliances settle and lower bunker.

 

 

DHL Global Forwarding Air Freight Market Update March 2025

 

Global Air Cargo Demand: Early Mar’25 volumes shows a bounce back, majorly due to Asia, South and Central America regions.

Global Air Cargo Capacity: Markets experience fluctuations in demand, capacity adjustments, and shifting trade policies.

Freighter operators continue shifting capacity to Asia to meet growing e-commerce demand.

 

Asia:

·      Demand and rates have stabilized, rising in March due to the usual quarter-end surge.

·      Limited cargo capacity growth and ongoing uncertainty are widening the gap between fixed and floating rates, adding pressure to pricing dynamics.

 

 

Forwarders 'allowing the fox into the chicken run' by supporting 'hungry' carriers

 

Forwarders are “allowing the fox into the chicken run” by supporting carriers that also work directly with shippers, according to global development director of CargoGulf Hans-Henrik Nielsen.  The Loadstar has previously reported on Danish carrier Maersk’s ambitions to become an integrator.  Responding to a question from The Loadstar on the eve of a naming event for its latest methanol-fuelled vessel in Rotterdam, Maersk North Europe MD Ole Trumpfheller said Maersk was bidding for the same volumes in the logistics business as forwarders, and described it as “healthy competition”.  Asked if the carrier was trying to squeeze forwarders out of the logistics business, Mr Trumpfheller replied “yes”, but Maersk assured it had a significant footprint with ocean forwarders and “wants to keep the current share of forwarder cargo on [its] vessels”.  

 

And Mr Nielsen asked: “If Maersk clearly states that they are going after the forwarder client base, why would you allow the fox into the chicken run and give Maersk access to all your client data?”  He predicted that “sooner or later” the retail client would see less need for a forwarder if they were able go to a carrier directly. He said: “Then what happens? The forwarder complains that the carrier is poaching their clients. They will reply, ‘that is not true – your client called us directly’… “Then the forwarder will become irrelevant.”  Mr Nielsen said that “over the last 20 years, Maersk has had a passive-aggressive position towards freight forwarders”, which behaviour, he added, was not exclusive to Maersk and also applied to other large carriers – “CMA CGM in particular”.   “If they are fully booked, they do not need forwarders and hike up rates or even decline bookings. Then, whenever they run into trouble and are not fully booked, they have been forced to eat humble pie, lowered the rates and accepted forwarder bookings again,” he told The Loadstar. 

 

Indeed, at TPM25 by S&P Global, head of ocean freight Americas at Rhenus Logistics Stehpanie Loomis said: “From a forwarder’s perspective, when the market is tough and the carriers need volume, the forwarders are their best friends. And as soon as it gets tense and tight, and there’s not as much space to go around, then it becomes important that you’re big enough.” 

 

 

Forwarders require rapid response in fast moving market

 

Nicolette van der Jagt, director general at Clecat, told Container News: "Freight forwarders face growing uncertainty due to ongoing geopolitical challenges, regulatory developments and ongoing market volatility anticipated in 2025. These uncertainties prompt shippers to diversify their supply chains, creating demand for agile, flexible, and knowledgeable freight forwarders capable of adapting quickly to shifting requirements." As the major forwarders tackle the major market challenges more modest enterprises also have a critical role to play both in the US and in Europe with what Wadey calls a "more direct and personal service".

 

Rather than getting bigger, SME forwarders should focus on getting better. Co-CEO of CargoTrans Anthony De Filippis noted that where larger players might only have access to space with carriers they sign large contracts with, SMEs “often work with multiple agents at origin” to secure space. “While large forwarders may offer scale, we hear time and again that what customers really want is reliability, transparency, and responsiveness — especially when disruptions happen,” he explained. “That’s where SME forwarders like us thrive… Simply put, we care more.” 

 

 

It's a struggle for 'digital' forwarders, with 'poster boy' Flexport losing value

 

Wolfgang Lehmacher, partner at Anchor Group and former director at the World Economic Forum, in a recent article.  “The current second wave is about recognising that scale requires resources beyond the capability of these companies, and requires patience, which most shareholders of VC-backed firms lack.” “Our interviews with multiple players in the sector, both on the buy- and sell-side, hint at a recognition among digital-first players that further growth requires a level of balance sheet strength that incumbents have, but digital-first actors lack and likely cannot replicate easily.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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