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Freight indices contradict each other: International freight insights APAC July 2025

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Volatile global rates persist as freight indices contradict each other. Access ZG’s indicators from Asia freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia increased 27% for June 2025. These June 2025-month international ocean freight observations show greater increases than the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.

 

The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia decreased 1% for June 2025 (all data here mentioning June 2025 is to 27th June). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes decreased 11% for June 2025 time period, led by declines in the China – US route. The Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight spot rates globally increased 19% for June, led by the Middle East wars increasing rates in the Asia- Europe route. The inverse results of these two indices highlights the volatility in freight rates.

 

The inversion of the China to South East Asia and China to Australia / New Zealand per The China Containerized Freight Index suggests that Australia rates are more deflated (by over 6%) than neighboring routes and there is more upside in rates China to Australia in the short/ medium term versus China to South East Asia. This is suggested via Australia index levels being historically above South East Asia rates over recent history.


Shipping lines have showed they will drastically raise freight rates at the prospect of any potential global disruptive supply chain event. At current rates shipping lines are making losses on China / Asia to Australia / New Zealand routes. As a result, some shipping lines have blanked sailings in June to Australia & New Zealand and may continue to do so in the short term.


Worldwide air freight rates per the TAC Index declined 4% for the month of June 2025. Intra-Asia Pacific air freight rates declined 2% for the first three weeks of June 2025 (per World ACD Air Cargo Market Trends report).


Getting quality early information is important in this volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters can be viewed here: access-zg.com/blog. See below for June 2025 high value article highlights:


Long term unpredictability forecast for container market

 

Shippers and forwarders should brace for prolonged disruptions in the container trade, with economists and industry experts expecting the US administration's trade war to eventually lead to fundamental changes in supply chains.

 

Economist Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College at the University of Cambridge, argues: "The latest twists and turns could imply that US policymakers' primary motive is to achieve a fairer trading system through the 'escalate to de-escalate' approach. If so, this goal should eventually sideline some of the other stated (and contradictory) priorities: generating large revenues and significant reshoring of manufacturing." El-Erian said that the global economy could be on a trajectory that will lead to recession, stagflation and the fragmentation of global commerce. Alternatively, he said we could be on a path to a Ronald Reagan/Thatcherite type "rewiring" that eventually increases productivity and growth and will lower deficits and debt, that in turn leads to "a fairer trading order, and a more stable payments system". However, El-Erian concludes: "Even optimists should acknowledge that this is a 50-50 proposition at best. In the meantime, we will all need to muster the resilience to endure prolonged uncertainty, and with it the flexibility to prepare for vastly different future scenarios."

 

 

Stable demand outlook despite US trade policies: BIMCO's Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook June 2025

 

"We forecast a stable demand outlook for the container shipping sector in line with our previous report despite the uncertainties introduced by new US trade policies. We expect the supply/demand balance to weaken only slightly in 2025 and 2026, as our ship demand growth forecast now excludes a return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings," says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with significant trade policy changes and geopolitical tensions affecting market conditions. In April, the IMF reduced its global economic growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025 and 3.0% for 2026, a decrease of 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively.

 

"Overall, the container shipping market is navigating through a complex landscape of trade policies, economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions. Significant demand uncertainties therefore still exist. As an example, we estimate that a return to normal routings through the Red Sea and Suez Canal would lower ship demand by 10%. In our base case, we expect weakening of the supply/demand balance during the second half of 2025 and expect freight rates to retreat accordingly. In 2026, we anticipate a further, albeit less pronounced, weakening of freight rates and the supply/demand balance," says Rasmussen.

 

 

Tariff pause sends valuation of six listed container carriers past US$10 billion

 

Six publicly-listed container carriers saw their market valuation exceed US$10 billion in May, as the Red Sea crisis plus windfall profits from the threat of tariff action continued to keep shipping stock prices high, reported Alphaliner today. After a market contraction in 2023, which saw the number of carriers with a 'large capitalisation' valuation shrink to just three companies, stocks have continued to build on the Red Sea effect, collectively rising 20% over the last year.

 

 

Container rates surging as shippers rush ahead of deadlines (June 11, 2025)

 

Transpacific container rates to the West Coast doubled last week on June 1st GRIS to US$5,488/FEU, with the latest daily rates above US$6,000/FEU as shippers start peak season early and frontload goods ahead of tariff pause expirations in July and August. Prices to the East Coast climbed 60% to US$ 6,410/FEU with the latest daily rates above US$ 7,000/FEU, with rates on both lanes about even with levels a year ago when Red Sea- driven capacity restraints combined with an early peak season rush ahead of the ILA port strike threat to push prices up. Carriers are planning additional transpacific GRIS of US$1,000 US$3,000/FEU for mid- June and again on July 1st.

 


Blanked sailings in sight as transpac rate plunge continues after 'phantom peak'


Container spot freight rates on the transpacific trades continued their headlong descent this week, after another 20% was wiped off Asia-US west coast prices and 13% off Asia-US east coast.

 

 

Yang Ming executive: Tariffs and Mid- East conflict to shape demand

 

Yang Ming's commercial chief Kevin Lee said at a marketing conference that US tariffs and Middle East tensions will affect demand for container shipping in the second half of 2025.

Speaking at the Capital Securities Corporation-organised event, Lee said: "Tariffs are the biggest variable.........Freight rates for the early part of this month were higher than in April and May. Whilst we're still positive about volumes in the third quarter, the exemption for US President Donald Trump's tariffs is approaching. Shipping lines must monitor the developments once the three-month pause in tariffs ends (in August)." Lee also said the ongoing Israel-Iran tensions mean that the Premier Alliance, to which Yang Ming belongs, will not resume Red Sea transits in the near term, adding that oil prices are likely to move up and affect shipping lines' costs.

 

 

Unprecedented fleet utilization puts another layer of uncertainty in global shipping


The global container shipping industry is entering uncharted waters as it sails into an era of unprecedented fleet utilization, with idle capacity plunging to a mere 0.6% of the world's 32 million TEU fleet, according to Alphaliner's report. With just 70 vessels (185,157 TEUs) currently inactive, the liner sector has become virtually fully employed, a situation not seen since pre-pandemic boom peaks and now, under vastly different geopolitical and operational conditions.

 

But beyond logistics and tonnage charts, this operational saturation carries deep geopolitical significance, reshaping global trade influence, port hierarchies, and strategic maritime leverage.

Alphaliner's report mentions that this comes as a result of multiple external shocks, including: Red Sea rerouting, with Suez diversions reducing global shipping capacity by up to 8%, suspended US-China tariffs, temporarily boosting Transpacific demand as shippers rush cargoes ahead of the August 2025 tariff cliff and congestion and longer turnaround times in key ports like Los Angeles, Rotterdam, and Singapore. It seems that rerouting and delays are not marginal inefficiencies; they are the new normal in a fragmented, risk-intensive maritime ecosystem.

 

 

Australia inaugurates new maritime investment strategy

 

Australia's recent announcement of A$204 million in port investments, outlined in Western Australia's 2025-2026 State Budget, signals a calculated move to fortify its maritime infrastructure amidst a rapidly evolving Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape. This strategy reflects Australia's broader ambition to enhance trade resilience, project economic sovereignty, and assert strategic relevance in a region increasingly shaped by great power competition and shifting trade flows.

 

China's expanding control over ports in the Indo-Pacific and Africa (e.g., Hambantota, Djibouti, Gwadar) creates a network of logistical outposts that could compete with Australian ports for influence over key trade lanes.

 

 

Where maritime tech consolidation is today

 

The recent publication of two maritime technology landscape maps, clustered with hundreds of logos, shows how fragmented this business is despite significant consolidation over the past couple of years.

 

The maritime industry is undergoing a rapid technological transformation, with AI emerging as a driving force behind it. Recent publications, such as the Global Maritime Tech Startup Map 2025 by Flagship Founders and SkySail Advisors’ Maritime Technology Landscape, highlight the explosive growth of companies providing tech solutions for the sector as well as belated consolidation in what is a fragmented market with a lack of standardisation.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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Phone: 0417 275 262           

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WhatsApp: +61 417 275 262

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