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Will the China - US rapid freight rate rise and early peak season spread to other trade lanes including Australia? : International freight insights APAC June 2025

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A coinciding peak season with constant US tariff changes may be the next rapid freight rate increase event. Access ZG’s indicators from Asia freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia decreased 10% for the May 2025 month. These May 2025-month international ocean freight observations show greater decreases than the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.


The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia decreased 6% for May 2025. Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes increased 55% for May 2025 time period. This index increased a massive 31% in the final week of the month – indicating a rapid rise in global rates to start off June 2025. Whilst the biggest driver of this was China to US trade lane, some other trade lanes in this index also increased by 20% plus for the week, indicating the increased rates are spreading to many global trade lanes for June.  


The inversion of the China to South East Asia and China to Australia / New Zealand per The China Containerized Freight Index suggests that Australia rates are more deflated (by over 8%) than neighboring routes and there is more upside in rates China to Australia in the short/ medium term versus China to South East Asia. This is suggested via Australia index levels being historically above South East Asia rates over recent history.


Shipping lines have showed they will drastically raise freight rates at the prospect of any potential global disruptive supply chain event. This disruptive event may be an easing of US tariffs due to court orders or agreement or further pauses coinciding with the ocean freight peak-season. A dislocation of container equipment and sudden change in demand and ship routing could be an excuse for a rate surge. Also, at current rates shipping lines are making losses on China / Asia to Australia / New Zealand routes and therefore will be looking at global events to increase rates and may increase blank sailings in the short term.


Worldwide air freight rates per TAC Index declined 2% for the month of May 2025. Intra-Asia Pacific air freight rates held up slightly better being roughly flat (per World ACD Air Cargo Market Trends report).


Getting quality early information is as important as ever in this extremely volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters can be viewed here: access-zg.com/blog. See below for May 2025 high value article highlights:


Tariff truce tipped to usher in covid era uptick in box fortunes

 

The 90-day tariff ceasefire between the world’s top two economies could see covid era surges in shipments and box freight rates, one leading analyst has suggested.  “The volume rebound will coincide with the traditional summer peak season, with freight rates set to surge as a result,” Linerlytica, an Asia-based container shipping consultancy predicted, suggesting the import surge into the US expected over the next three months could exceed the covid-era peaks seen in 2021-2022. Carriers have pre-announced provisional transpacific peak season surcharges of $1,000 to $2,000 per feu that would apply as early as this week that will push rates to the US west coast above $3,500 again. Freight rates on routes outside of the US are also tipped by Linerlytica to benefit as vessel capacity is drawn back to the transpacific. 

 

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, a freight rate platform, said that with an average transit time of 22 days on the transpacific trade, shippers are likely to maximise this opportunity by moving as much cargo as possible during the 90-day period, creating upward pressure on freight rates. “Q3 is traditionally the peak season for ocean container shipping, but that may arrive earlier in 2025 if there is now a rush to import goods into the US from China,” said Sand.

 

More cautious was Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, a box booking platform, who predicted rates will rise but not explode. “The volume rebound will probably signal the start of an early peak season that will keep rates elevated – but we might not see last year’s $8,000+ per feu highs due to a more competitive, well-supplied carrier landscape already keeping  rates lower year-on-year,” Levine said. 

 

“Given the tighter capacity on the Transpacific, ocean carriers are in the driver’s seat to push freight rates meaningfully higher,” argued Jefferies, an investment bank, in a note to clients. 

 


Maersk maintains full-year outlook despite market uncertainty

 

Maersk reported improved Q1 results and reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, with underlying EBITDA expected to range between US$ 6-9 billion.

 


Peak season or recession? Forwarders and shippers need to 'stay flexible'


Transpacific contract negotiations appear to be held in a holding pattern, with few to no agreements having been inked and sources claiming all sides are ‘playing for time’. Given contracts typically run 1 May-30 April, that so few have been agreed is indicative of the impact of the Trump-generated uncertainty swirling around the market, said Transport Intelligence chief executive John Manners-Bell, who also questioned the merit of any claims of strategy. “I am not sure anyone will have worked out a coherent strategy for this; you’ll want to keep things as flexible as possible for up to a year,” Mr Manners-Bell told The Loadstar. “Neither forwarder nor shipper is going to want to be locked into a contract they cannot escape in a moment when they cannot see which way the wind is blowing. Flexibility is the only way I can imagine companies dealing with this.” And Mr Manners-Bell also stressed that there were disturbances unique to each tradelane. He added: “How contract negotiations fare, and how rates play out, depends entirely on the tradelane you are operating in. Those in the Middle East will be dealing with a whole range of issues that differ from those being faced on the transpacific.”

 

 

Volume surge and an early peak season? 'Don't celebrate too soon,' warning

 

Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen revealed during the company’s first-quarter earnings call this morning that the carrier had seen China-US bookings surge since the weekend. “Whether this is going to be a surge that’s going to take 60 or 90 days, or whether that’s going to last longer, I think it’s very difficult to predict at this point, but we don’t expect it to hold. “It will also depend on the further talks between China and the US,” Mr Habben Jansen added. “Q3 is traditionally the peak season for ocean container shipping, but that may arrive earlier if there is now a rush to import goods into the US from China,” said Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand.

 

However, Freightos head analyst Judah Levine noted: “This 30% minimum tariff on Chinese goods is higher than the highest tariffs applied to a more limited list of goods during the first Trump administration. “If demand does pick up sharply, shippers may face a period of tight capacity and some equipment shortages, as vessels and containers are moved back into place. [It]would also mean a big bump in the number of vessels and container volumes arriving at US ports in a few weeks. “Taken together, shippers could face increased container rates and some congestion and delays in the next few weeks at both origins and US destinations,” he explained. “There will be relief over the easing of tariffs, but shippers cannot carry on as if nothing has happened, because if we have learned anything in the past few months, it is to expect the unexpected and further volatility – the geopolitical risk on supply chains is ever present.

 


Shippers hold their breath as Trump appeals court ruling that tariffs are illegal

 

Any shipper waking up to discover that large swathes of President Trump’s tariffs have been ruled illegal should not celebrate just yet.  The White House has submitted an appeal against the judgment by the US Court of International Trade that ruled that the president had overreached his authority in imposing reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). 

 

The court gave the Trump administration 10 calendar days to issue “necessary administrative orders” to end the impacted tariffs – but the White House appeal requests seven days to “to allow time for the Federal Circuit to consider a motion to stay and request for administrative stay”. Responses to the White House’s motion to suspend the order, pending appeal, are due by 18 June – a more than two-week wait.

 

While it is highly likely that the decision will end with the Supreme Court, the White House has other tools at its disposal to introduce tariffs. Meanwhile those on autos, steel, and aluminium remain, as they were invoked under a different law.

 


Shanghai spot box rates to US west coast leap 31% in just one week


Friday’s weekly publishing of spot rates from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange has given a stark picture of the frenzy building on the transpacific. Rates from China to the US west coast leapt 31% week-on-week, while rates to the east coast jumped 22% as shippers rush to make the most of a 90-day mini-reprieve in the tariff war between the world’s top two economies. Drewry’s spot index, published yesterday, also shot up. Freight rates tracked by Drewry from Shanghai to New York surged 19% or $704 to $4,350 per feu and those from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased 16% or $423 to $3,136 per feu. “Following the latest US–China trade developments, Drewry expects an increase in Transpacific spot rates in the coming week due to shortage in capacity,” Drewry commented yesterday.

 

 

'Cargo collision' expected as transpacific capacity tightens and rates rise

 

Transpacific shippers keen to take advantage of the 90-day tariff time-out are likely to be faced with tight capacity and soaring freight rates as new volumes collide with delayed cargo. According to new analysis from Sea-Intelligence Consulting, there is 180,000-540,000 teu of cargo in China that formed a ‘cargo pool’ in the immediate aftermath of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on 2 April. Sea-Intelligence explained that it expected to see fresh capacity injections announced in the coming days, but questioned whether it would be enough to mitigate sharp freight rate increases. “It is very likely that we will see a substantial increase of cargo in the coming weeks. This can better be managed if the [waiting] pool is distributed over the next six weeks – or longer. “However, it is very likely that shippers will be anxious to move their cargo as fast as possible, before they are blindsided by new tariff changes. “Consequently, we expect to see a sharp rise in spot rates in the coming weeks, as well as much more capacity insertion into the transpacific – at the expense of blanked sailings in other Asian export trades,” it said.

 

 

Ocean rates rise after tariff pause acts as 'starting gun' for more front-loading

 

General rate increases (GRIs) give a “clear indication of ocean carrier intentions”, and raise alarm bells for their clients with long-term contracts. Emily Stausboll, senior shipping analyst at Xeneta, said the 90-day lowering of US tariffs on Chinese imports, from 145% to 30%, “acted as the starting gun for businesses to ship as many goods as possible”.  She added: “Carriers do not need a second invitation to introduce surcharges in response to situations that cause a squeeze on capacity, and this puts shippers in a difficult position.” Ms Stausboll wondered “how high rates would go” as carriers rushed to announce GRIs for 1 June “that push all-in rates to $7,000 per 40ft into the US east coast”. But she added: “These GRIs may not stick, but it gives a clear indication of carrier intentions,” an unfortunate sign for forwarders and shippers with long-term contracts. 

 

Charles Maralle, CEO of Exfreight, told The Loadstar on the sidelines of IATA’s CNS conference in Miami: “Most people were burned during Covid where they had a long-term contract rate with a liner for ‘x’ amount. The liners saw they could make double, triple, or even quadruple that amount if they gave that space to someone else in the spot market.  “They basically stopped loading in space allotted through signed long-term contracts, and what recourse did the clients have? Essentially, the contracts say ‘we’ll move this much in a year’.”  According to Mr Maralle, this led to stakeholders increasingly opting for the spot-market, “not putting all their eggs in one basket” with long-term contracts.  

 

“Now, people are saying, ‘maybe I should diversify and try to get contract terms that stipulate how many slots I get per month, instead of the general term of slots per year’,” he said.  “But again, the ocean liners just do whatever they want, and there’s no one to complain to. I see the same practices being played out. Unless you’re a Walmart or someone who’s got a lot of volume, they really don’t care. They control the market.” He noted there had been “some creative ideas” between forwarders looking to increase their clout with the carriers.  “There are forwarder consortia, signing contracts together; we see that on the export side… It allows you to get a little bit more attention.” 

 


Maersk CEO: Return to Red Sea would “not be responsible”

 

Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said it would be “irresponsible” to resume Red Sea transits based on an unclear ceasefire deal, warning the region remains too volatile for a safe return.



ANL announces rate restoration from North East Asia to Australia East Coast


ANL will implement a Rate Restoration Program for all shipments from North East Asia to the East Coast of Australia, effective 5 June 2025. The rate adjustment will be as follows, US$ 150 per 20' dry/reefer container and US$ 300 per 40' dry/reefer container.

 

 

Boxport congestion spreads from Europe to the US and China


Port congestion seen across key Northern European hubs is intensifying and is now spreading to China and the US, a situation expected to worsen as a result of Donald Trump’s on/off tariff strategy. 

 

 

DHL Air Freight Market Update - April 2025

 

Global Air Cargo Demand:

 

Trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, led to a surge in air freight as companies sought to bypass impending tariffs. Major volumes in Q1’25 were contributed by Asia Pacific (China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Japan). Key trade routes with significant growth YoY Q1’25, Europe-Americas at 9%, Asia Pacific-Americas at 3%, and Intra-Asia Pacific at 11%.

 

Asia Air Freight News:

 

The challenge remains for airlines, forwarders, and shippers to plan i.e. shippers rerouting from high tariff to lower tariff countries, re-directing products for production and distribution hubs, and airlines re-aligning capacity to trade lanes where demand is strong. Shift in trade flows will result in higher volume from China to Europe/Latin America and Southeast Asia/ India to the USA.

 

 

Ecommerce likely the front-runner in resurge of transpacific trade after deal


Analyst Lars Jensen said he expected a “surge”, adding: “There is already a large amount of cargo ready to go, as US importers have been adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ strategy over the past month and abstained from shipping cargo which is already ready.” He added: “The 90-day pause expires in the middle of the usual peak season for holiday-related goods going to the US. We should therefore expect a possible pull-forward of cargo, creating a shorter, sharper, peak season from, basically, right now.” Mr Jensen said carriers would likely reinstate blanked sailings, but could be restricted by vessel location. “How quickly this can happen will also determine to which degree there might be a short-term capacity shortage on the Pacific, resulting in escalating spot rates.”

 


Xeneta: Air cargo rate growth narrows and the market outlook is daunting


Looking ahead, now that the de minimis exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong into the US has been removed, major trade lane disruption is expected for e-commerce. "This is quite likely the calm before the storm. If the new de minimis set-up remains - and why would they change it after the investment the authorities have reportedly made - then this will undoubtedly negatively impact airfreight volumes from China to the US," said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer. "The traditional airfreight market will not be able to compensate for the decline in e-commerce volumes. Airlines will adjust their networks to this new reality and this, in turn, will have a beneficial impact for shippers around the world as they will see more capacity coming (back) to their market – but they still need viable trading conditions to enjoy the benefit of this opportunity.” He added: "The likelihood of lower airfreight rates is better news for shippers and forwarders, but if shippers can’t sell their goods because of tariffs, that’s bad news for the macroeconomic picture and the need for airfreight. For most airfreight shipments, lower rates will not compensate for the tariffs that will have to be paid."

 

Overall, van de Wouw said the macroeconomic picture will depend on how long the uncertainty lasts, but "the outlook currently looks quite daunting". “This is not about one industry being affected. This is about major trade lanes being affected, and we haven’t seen anything on this scale before,” he said.

 

 

HMM celebrates landmark electronic bill of lading transaction

 

The Digital Container Shipping Association (DCSA) has provided details of the world’s first successful standards-based, interoperable electronic bill of lading (eBL) transaction, something the organisation claims marks a “significant advancement toward secure, scalable, and truly paperless global trade”. Despite the availability of digital alternatives for years, eBL adoption has remained constrained by platform fragmentation. The industry’s digital transformation has been hindered by siloed eBL platforms requiring all transaction participants to use the same solution provider. This approach has prevented the widespread adoption needed to capture the estimated $6.5bn in direct cost savings and $40bn in increased trade that eBLs can deliver, according to McKinsey & Company research.

 

This successful interoperable eBL transaction represents a breakthrough in addressing these challenges, powered by DCSA’s interoperability framework. Commenting on the successful transaction, John Kim, senior manager of digital at HMM, said: “It was an incredible experience to participate in this interoperability pilot as a carrier and see eBL being sent to our shipper, Suzano, on two different platforms in real time.”

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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