top of page
Search

Freight rates pump & dump again, is that a new normal?: International freight insights APAC December 2025




Freight rates pump & dump again, is that a new normal? Access ZG’s indicators from Asia based freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers to Australia decreased 43% for November 2025 (following a 75% increase in October 2025). These November 2025-month international ocean freight observations show differences to the Index results stated below. This is due to rate volatility and the index lagging by up to a few weeks the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates.


50% rises / falls in international shipping freight rates in under a month seems the new normal. It’s happened multiple times in the near past with general rate increases sticking for a short while and then fading away.


The China Containerized Freight Index showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia increased 11% for November 2025 (after increasing 2% in October). Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which leads the China Index (as it uses data from quoted rates for the forthcoming week) to all global routes decreased 10% for November 2025 time period (after increasing 39% for October 2025). The Drewry Composite Index that measures ocean freight spot rates globally decreased 1% in November (after increasing 3% for October). Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index was an outlier in ocean freight rates and increased 30% for November 2025.     


There is now more divergence in international freight rate movements between trade lanes depending on specific geopolitical, demand and shipping line capacity policy.


The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) futures is the best read for global future ocean shipping market forecasts (only available for Asia to Europe route). It showed a 12% decrease in 31 December contracts (ec2512) over the past month, longer dated contracts decreased about 11% over the past month.


Worldwide air freight rates per the TAC Index increased 17% for the month of November 2025 (after a 7% increase in October 2025).


Getting quality early information is important in this volatile market. Prior International Freight Insights APAC newsletters under the ‘Insights’ tab and further service offering information can be viewed here: access-zg.com 

 

Reply for further discussion about how Access ZG’s service offerings can assist with increasing control of your overseas logistics operations.

 

See below for November 2025 high value article highlights:


DHL Ocean Freight Market Update- November 2025

 

Demand

·      YTD market demand grew 9% fueled by strong volumes out of Asia, while tariffs slowed down US imports from China.

·      U.S tariffs stimulate shift to China + X sourcing pattern on the Transpacific trade.

 

Capacity

·      Effective capacity remains tight despite 7% nominal growth in 2025, as Suez detours and port congestion cut usable capacity by ~15%.

 

 

 

December & January added as demand exceeding capacity (red) for Asia to Oceania compared to DHL’s October report.

 

 

DHL Air Freight Market Update- October 2025

 

Demand

 

·      Global air cargo tonnage rose +4% YoY YTD through September’25.

·      With September growth flat versus the previous month, strong gains ex-Asia Pacific(AP)-Europe & Americas, Intra-AP, and Europe-AP.

·      Global demand expected to show moderate growth in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending in advanced economies. Forecasts remain mixed, with e-commerce, electronics, and pharmaceuticals providing the strongest support, while traditional industrial and automotive volumes stay subdued.

 

Capacity

 

·      Global air cargo capacity remained flat around 0% YoY in September – October’25.

·      Following steady declines since May, driven by sharp double-digit reductions in freighter availability. While passenger bellyhold capacity offers some relief, it hasn’t been enough to offset the decline or restore growth.

·      Global air cargo capacity is projected to remain tight but stable through Q4 2025, as airlines balance seasonal demand surges with disciplined network management. Freighter utilization remains high, while belly capacity continues to recover in line with sustained passenger traffic growth—particularly on transatlantic and Asia–Europe routes.

 

Asia

·      Asia Pacific → U.S. demand +2% YoY Sep 2025, supported by tech and machinery shipments from Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia; e-commerce continues to drive Asia Pacific → Europe trade.

·      Freighter redeployments and route realignments constrain capacity growth mainly from passenger belly space, but effective supply.

·      Rates to remain modestly higher, with China–U.S. lanes facing the highest volatility risk due to tariff uncertainty.

 

 

Container shipping’s paradox where geopolitics fuels growth

 

The world's largest container carriers are ordering ships at an unprecedented pace not because global trade is booming, but because it's fracturing. Container shipping's orderbook has surpassed 10 million TEU for the first time in history, with industry giant MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company recently crossing the 7 million TEU capacity threshold making it 50% larger than second-place Maersk. Meanwhile, South Korea's HMM joined the elite club of carriers exceeding 1 million TEU. The expansion comes despite or perhaps because of mounting geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and supply chain upheaval. This counterintuitive growth reveals a fundamental shift in maritime logistics: carriers aren't betting on increased cargo volumes. They're preparing for a permanently more complex operating environment where getting goods from point A to point B requires more ships, not more cargo. The traditional model of container shipping relied on massive economies of scale. Mega- ships shuttled between major hubs on predictable transoceanic routes, feeding regional distribution networks. That world is dissolving.

 

HMM's milestone of exceeding 1 million TEU demonstrates that even mid-tier carriers recognize scale as the primary defense against disruption. Notably, both companies achieved recent growth without dramatic newbuild programs, instead repositioning existing assets and strategic charters a nimble approach to volatile markets. Here lies the industry's central paradox: carriers need more capacity to handle similar cargo volumes because operational complexity has exploded.

 

 

Shipping hesitates on Red Sea return

 

Experts covering the Red Sea shipping crisis have advised caution over any swift return to the Middle Eastern tradelane. Yesterday, the Houthis officially announced that they have paused maritime attacks on Israel and lifted their so-called naval blockade on Israeli ports. This announcement appeared at the end of a letter sent to Hamas’s military wing, Kata’ib al-Qassam, by the newly appointed Houthi chief of staff, Yousef Hassan Al-Madani, who succeeded Mohammed Al-Ghamari after he died in Israeli airstrikes. The Houthi strikes, which killed at least nine seafarers and sank four ships, forced global trade to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope for the past couple of years, propping up ton-miles and freight rates. While confirming a pause for now, Al-Madani added that if the conflict in Gaza continues, the Houthis would consider resuming their own operations, including renewed pressure on maritime routes.


Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, an ocean and air freight intelligence platform, said: “Details are sketchy and you cannot base the safety of crews, ships and cargo on the word of Houthi militia. Carriers need far more assurance than that and, perhaps more importantly, so do insurance companies.” Maritime security specialist Ambrey has reported that Bab el-Mandeb transits have modestly increased in recent days. Two Greek companies have restarted transits, and other companies are openly transiting when they have previously withheld AIS transmissions.

 

 

SpecTec: Shipping’s digital breakthrough lies in better data

 

SpecTec chief executive Adam Dennett says shipping’s next big digital breakthrough won’t come from new tools, but from getting existing systems to work together. Founded in Norway in 1985 and now based in Limassol, SpecTec develops the long-running AMOS vessel management software. Dennett believes the next 12 months will be defined by progress in system integration and data interoperability. “Technology is siloed within the industry and data exists within multiple systems which are not integrated or talking to each other,” he notes. “There’s a huge opportunity in getting that interoperability part right. It would create real visibility across the shipping supply and value chain.”

 

Dennett says that the goal will require both cooperation and clear regulatory backing. “Networks need to agree standardisation and a format of data that can drive the necessary reporting and functionality. And regulators must support and acknowledge the standards developed as industry benchmarks,” he explains. He believes the industry’s competitive instincts have slowed progress. “A lot of organisations strive to be the best rather than striving to create widespread industry best practice.

 


FedEx Dataworks, ServiceNow partner to build Al-Powered supply chains

 

FedEx Dataworks and ServiceNow announced a new strategic collaboration to build AI- native, data-driven supply chain solutions. The partnership combines FedEx Dataworks' global logistics intelligence with the ServiceNow AI platform to anticipate disruptions, optimize networks, and turn supply chain complexity into competitive advantage.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

_______________________________

Phone: 0417 275 262           

           +86 18813902084

WhatsApp: +61 417 275 262

WeChat: Jiefu888Jeff



 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page